Nearly there now.
By this day next week we should know how the next Dáil will largely be comprised. Locally we should know the identity of the three Laois TDs.
The national picture has changed, bit by bit over the course of the campaign. Fine Gael and Simon Harris were on the crest of a wave coming in; Sinn Féin and Mary Lou McDonald were on the ropes.
The Michael O’Leary incident, the saga of Louth candidate John McGahon, their handling of the controversy involving former councillor Patsy O’Brien in Mayo and Harris’s remarks on the Children’s Hospital have combined to damage the Fine Gael brand across the last two weeks.
Fine Gael’s 4% drop in the polls came on the back of polling done even before Simon Harris’s viral clash with a care worker in Cork.
That Sunday Independent poll showed a massive drop of 4% in support for Fine Gael, to 22%, and a rise of 2% for Sinn Féin, to 20%. Fianna Fáil remain unchanged at 20%.
The Irish Times poll on Monday morning for Fine Gael was even worse, showing them down six points to 19%. Sinn Féin are up one to 20% and Fianna Fáil are up one to 21%.
In a big week on the national scene, how will Tuesday night’s live TV debate – this time limited to just Harris, McDonald and Micheal Martin (Fianna Fáil) – have? Martin will then have his long sitdown interview with Colette Fitzpatrick on Virgin Media on Wednesday night.
In Laois, will the waning Simon Harris effect have an impact on Fine Gael’s Willie Aird? He is one of 18 new candidates the party are hoping can hold on to a seat previously held.
If he doesn’t meet the quota on first preferences, where will his transfers come from? Or can he bar far enough ahead to make it?
The candidates in Laois at this stage can be fitted into four categories, though the lower-ranked ones would probably all argue they should be higher up.
Into the first grouping we’ll put Jason Lynch (Independent), Mary Hand (Aontu) and Ken Mooney (People Before Profit). None of them have contested an election of any type previously, have had a low-key campaign and very limited profile prior to them appearing as a General Election candidate.
Then you have Austin Stack (Fianna Fáil), Rosie Palmer (Green Party) and Pauline Flanagan (Independent). All three have a certain level of name recognition, have political party experience and in the case of Palmer and Flanagan were in the recent Local Elections. Previous election performance, coming late into the race or, in the case of Palmer, a party that is really on the back foot indicate strongly they won’t be in the running.
After that, in no particular order (for now) is Maria McCormack (Sinn Fein), Elaine Mullally (Independent) and Aisling Moran (Independent).
All three are running very strong and energetic campaigns. McCormack has the Sinn Féin machine behind her, Mullally has been canvassing in this election for longer than anyone while Moran has two successful Local Elections behind her as well as a lifetime of experience within Fine Gael and now the benefit of being an Independent candidate.
Whichever of these three is in front after the first count, should be in with a chance – if there isn’t an absolutely massive gap up to whoever is in third.
After that, you’re looking at the incumbents, though even that comes with asterisks. Sean Fleming (Fianna Fáil) is the only one that is unchanged from 2020. Aird is now the Fine Gael standard bearer following Charlie Flanagan’s retirement while Brian Stanley is now an Independent after a bitter split from Sinn Féin.
That ugly Stanley/Sinn Féin drama distorts the picture in Laois somewhat – both on the Independent numbers and on Sinn Féin. It’s unlikely that there will be a seat for both him and Sinn Féin.
But will there be two seats for the Government parties? Will the numbers be there?
Laois has largely been a conservative voting county over the years. You have to go back to 1948, when Oliver J Flanagan was briefly an Independent, for the last time the county elected anyone other than a Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael or Sinn Féin TD.
In the year since the county hasn’t elected an Independent and has never elected a woman. Our former constituency colleagues in Offaly have sent a Labour representative (Pat Gallagher, 1992) and a PD (Tom Parlon, 2002) to the Dáil. And they have elected three women – Olwyn Enright (Fine Gael), Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy (Fine Gael) and Carol Nolan (as both an Independent and, in 2016, for Sinn Fein).
The Portarlington, Killenard and Ballybrittas areas that come back into Laois on this occasion are considerable in number.
In 2020 they voted in Kildare South and showed big support for Independent Cathal Berry and Sinn Féin’s Monasterevin-based candidate Patricia Ryan, who topped the poll.
There are approximately 10,000 votes from that area to come back into Laois. On a 60% turnout, that’s about 6,000 votes. How that part of the county votes will be telling.
In total, we’re looking at a turnout of 35 to 36,000 meaning that the quota will be in the region of 9,000.
Can anyone top that on first preferences?
For all concerned, there’s essentially five precious days of canvassing left.
The door to door is a big element of it. But so too is the battle on social media, online and print media, podcasts and radio interviews.
The outcome of a General Election is a coming together of a wide range of variables. Circumstance, hard work, opportunity, track record, geography, the scene on the ground and the national picture. It’s an unscientific algorithm all fired into the ballot box and spat out by the electorate.
There’s a lot done so far – but nothing decided yet.
A huge week ahead for everyone. Good luck to them all.
SEE ALSO – Check out all our 2024 General Election coverage here
