‘Once deemed utterly predictable, the Laois constituency is boring no more’. That was the headline on a LaoisToday piece on November 11, the first Monday of this year’s General Election campaign.
Was it right? Was it way off? The build up to the campaign certainly wasn’t boring, all down to Brian Stanley and his explosive falling-out with Sinn Féin.
But the election itself was ultimately devoid of drama. Now as an Independent, Stanley held on, Fianna Fáil’s Sean Fleming was safe and Fine Gael’s Willie Aird, in his first election, topped the poll.
Aird’s exploits were obviously headline-grabbing, as was Stanley’s survival. Maria McCormack’s performance for Sinn Féin was notable too in the context of how she even came to be a candidate in the first place.
But once a final picture of the tallies emerged at lunch time last Saturday, it became clear that there was going to be no change. The Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil candidates in Laois were safely on their way back to Leinster House. It was a seat loss for Sinn Féin alright but Stanley is back for a fourth stint in the Dáil.
Had the Stanley saga not occurred and he’d remained as a Sinn Féin candidate, this would have been remarkably straightforward.
If it’s election upheaval you’re looking for, then Laois is not a place that you’ll find it.
There have been changes in personnel over the years in terms of the TDs that Laois has sent forward, but incumbents losing their seats? It’s a very rare occurrence.
Charlie McDonald (Fine Gael) in 1977, Charlie Flanagan (Fine Gael) in 2002 and John Moloney (Fianna Fáil) in 2011 are the only Laois TDs to contest and lose their seats in the past 80 years.
McDonald was a one-term TD, taking out Fianna Fáil’s Ber Cowen on the only occasion that Fine Gael won three of the five seats in Laois-Offaly. Cowen ultimately stormed back in 1977 as Fianna Fáil swept to power under the magnetic appeal of Jack Lynch, the last time that a single party achieved an outright majority.
Flanagan was ousted by former IFA leader Tom Parlon (PDs) in 2002 but returned five years later to turn the tables. John Moloney was part of the Fianna Fáil wipeout in 2011, his vote collapse allowing Brian Stanley win the seat for Sinn Féin.
That 2011 success for Brian Stanley was the only occasion that a Laois candidate ousted a fellow county man. McDonald and Flanagan were taken out by Offaly.
There have been various Laois candidates that have done well over the years without being elected. Impressive performers but not winners.
Fianna Fáil’s Liam Hyland in 1977 and John Moloney in 1992 fell short but their day was coming. They were elected at the next time of asking and went on to have fine careers, both serving as Ministers of State.
Others have polled respectably, hung around for a while but never reached that political Holy Grail. Cathy Honan from Portarlington ran in four general elections (1987-1997). At the first two attempts she finished sixth, in 1987 she was fourth in first preferences. But a spell in the Senate was her peak.
John Whelan (Labour) was sixth in 2011, only 15 votes short of Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy (Fine Gael) after the first count and went to the 13th count where Sean Fleming ultimately had too much.
After a strong election for Labour, Whelan, too, spent a term in the Seanad, but his party’s collapse meant that he was never in the running in the 2016 General Election.
That 2016 election signalled the arrival of Thomasina Connell for Fine Gael and she got over 4,200 first preferences without ever troubling the Big Three of Fleming, Flanagan and Stanley.
She duly proceeded to win a council seat in Portlaoise in 2019 and twice contested a Fine Gael General Election convention – then losing her seat in June’s Local Elections.
Maria McCormack is now in a similar position to Honan, Whelan and Connell. She has done remarkably well but there is no reward. She could well be a Seanad candidate but at a local level it’s likely her next chance could be 2029.
Maybe by then the picture will be a little different. The age profile of the current TDs mean that retirement is a legitimate question.
But it seems that’s the best chance for the challengers.
For the fourth election running, Laois have elected Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin/Brian Stanley.
Few constituencies across the country have such stability. You just have to compare and contrast with our neighbouring counties.
Stanley is the first Independent in Laois since 1948 and the county has never had a female TD.
In nearby Kildare South, two of its sitting TDs were voted out this time. Offaly has elected three women over the years as well as a PD and Labour candidate. There are now two Carlow women in the Dáil.
Sinn Féin have female TDs in Kildare South and Kilkenny and came within 100 votes of having one in Offaly.
The Laois electorate isn’t an angry one, or one demanding change.
And when you think of it, there aren’t any headline issues specific to Laois that would provoke a real shift in voting trends.
The hospital had always been a hot topic but after various scares, the A&E is secure in Portlaoise, unlike how it has been lost in the likes of Ennis and Roscommon.
Housing, childcare and the cost of living are obvious issues but not unique to Laois.
And while far from perfect, there’s plenty to keep people satisfied. There are no big tech, financial or pharma jobs, but there is a considerable proportion of safe, state jobs in the county.
Laois may not be a rich county but it is largely a comfortable one, with not all that much to be giving out about.
There is a fine train service. The road network is the envy of the country. The major cities are easy to get to.
Many – though certainly not all – children in the county are in new, modern schools, at primary and secondary. There’s new playgrounds opening every couple of months.
An agricultural county, there has been a greater increase in dairy farms – the industry’s most lucrative sector – than anywhere else in Ireland. Visitors from elsewhere marvel at the sheer quality of the tillage land.
Yes there are plenty of things that could be better – tourism, job creation, an indoor sports facility in Portlaoise, a ring road in Mountmellick – but Laois people, and its electorate, have never reared up and demanded change in considerable numbers.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael got more than 45% of the vote in Laois on this occasion. When you add in the relative familiarity of Brian Stanley and Sinn Féin, then 76% of the more than 38,000 people who voted in Laois, voted for what they knew.
That’s a challenge for new candidates, from outside the big names and parties.
That might be different down the line, but the likelihood is that change will only ever come very slowly.
SEE ALSO – Check out all our 2024 General Election coverage here
