It’s a saga that continues to rumble on, an all-out war of words between Brian Stanley and the Sinn Féin party in statement after statement.
The nub of it remains unchanged. An elected representative for Sinn Féin since 1999 and a member for about 15 years before that, Brian Stanley announced his resignation from the party on Saturday.
He was the subject of a complaint to the party from a long-standing member. Sinn Féin opened an inquiry, during which Stanley lodged a counter allegation. The nature of the original complaint nor the counter claim have been made public.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has said the matter has now been referred to the Gardai.
But what does it all mean for the General Election in Laois, which is now back as a three-seat constituency and no longer part of the larger Laois-Offaly five-seater?
Who is currently in the race, who might come into it and will anyone change their approach now that Sinn Féin are in this situation, without their standard bearer Brian Stanley, the man who has contested the last six elections for the party and topped the poll with a massive surplus in 2020?
When the General Election may be remains anyone’s guess. Taoiseach Simon Harris has always maintained that the current government will run its full course, meaning the country would not go to the polls until next February or March.
But given the disarray that Sinn Fein are currently in, the coalition partners may look to call it as soon as possible and it could be held in mid to late November.
Here we look at some of the considerations around the parties and the confirmed and potential candidates.
Brian Stanley
In his initial statement, Brian Stanley said he would be continuing to serve as an ‘Independent Republican TD’. But he didn’t state then, or since, if he’ll be contesting the General Election in that capacity.
There would appear to still be many twists in this saga but if he does run, he is likely to have a strong personal vote and as the highest-profile Independent, who has cut ties with a Sinn Féin party plummeting in the polls, then he would have a massive appeal.
It does look like he’ll be without many of Sinn Féin members in Laois which is an obvious blow, though he does have his own support base close to him.
He got a massive 16,654 first preferences in 2020, more than 5,000 over the quota. Over 6,000 of that vote was in Offaly, which he won’t have this time, but Portarlington, Killenard and Ballybrittas will be available again.
How much will this controversy have damaged him? How much would another Sinn Féin candidate damage him? Or would being an ‘Independent Republican’ outweigh both?
Sinn Féin
Sinn Féin have suffered multiple blows in this part of the country in recent years. Not only has Brian Stanley now left the party, but so too has the Portarlington-based councillor Aidan Mullins, who announced his resignation in August of this year.
Only last week, Patricia Ryan, a Sinn Féin TD based in Monasterevin in the Kildare South constituency also left the party and has confirmed she will run as an Independent in the General Election. Ryan is originally from Ballybrittas and Kildare South previously took in Portarlington, Killenard and Ballybrittas – but won’t do so in the upcoming election.
In Offaly, Carol Nolan resigned from the party in 2018 ahead of the abortion referendum. She had initially been suspended for voting against a Bill to have that referendum and subsequently left Sinn Féin.
Caroline Dwane-Stanley’s position as a councillor in Portlaoise remains unclear.
But Sinn Féin still have a reasonable number of feet on the ground, even if their profile isn’t high and they don’t have any other elected councillors.
Aaron Kelly from Graiguecullen appears to be the leading contender. Though he didn’t win a seat in the Local Elections, he was their strongest performer outside of established councillors Aidan Mullins and Caroline Dwane-Stanley. He got 785 first preference votes, which was just 21 behind Fine Gael’s Vivienne Phelan who was ultimately elected.
If Stanley does run as an Independent, there will be a real split in that Republican vote. Have Sinn Féin any strength going up against Stanley?
Fine Gael
With Charlie Flanagan having brought the curtain down on his 37-year political career, he has been replaced by long-serving Portlaoise-based councillor Willie Aird as their sole candidate for the next General Election.
But would they be now tempted to run a second candidate? Conor Bergin from Borris-in-Ossory withdrew his name at the very last moment at their selection convention in September. Recently-elected councillor Vivienne Phelan from Stradbally would aid the party’s gender quota requirements.
Fine Gael would appear to be very certain of a seat so is it worth running someone else as well in an effort to be in the mix for a second one?
Fianna Fáil
Sean Fleming is set for a seventh General Election campaign and if elected again will be on course to have served the people of Laois in the Dáil for more than 30 years.
The Portlaoise-based Pauline Flanagan was his running mate in 2020 in the Laois-Offaly constituency but as it stands there isn’t anyone else on the ticket with him, as was the case in 2016, when Laois was last a three-seater.
But would they be tempted to add someone now at this stage? Pauline Flanagan left the party and ran unsuccessfully in the Local Elections while there is no obvious General Election candidate among their ranks in the council. Cllr Catherine Fitzgerald was added in 2016 but withdrew prior to the election.
If there is a sniff of a second seat now, can they source someone to put their name forward? Could it be an opportunity to raise the profile of some of their young members, who will have to come to the fore in the next Locals anyway?
Could Naeem Iqbal, the Pakistani native, who ran in the Locals be an option? Or Joey Kennedy, the young Portarlington man who did very well in that area despite his late entry to that race.
Fianna Fáil have traditionally been strong on reading the numbers and will be quite sure of holding the seat. They don’t have the same foothold as they once had but having a second name on the ballot sheet is well worth consideration.
Independents and others
Already confirmed to be in the race are Elaine Mullally, a Portarlington-based candidate who was founding member of the new Independent Ireland party. She has since left the party and announced that she will be running as an Independent. She has launched her campaign and has been canvassing the county in recent weeks.
Also confirmed in the race are Rosie Palmer (Green Party) and Martha Ryan (Aontú), both of whom ran in the Portlaoise area in the Local Elections without challenging for a seat.
Rosie Palmer is from Ballinakill and works with Green Party Minister Pippa Hackett while Martha Ryan is based in Portlaoise and works as a nurse in the hospital.
There has never been a General Election in Laois without a Labour candidate on the ballot paper. Marie Tuohy in Portlaoise is their only councillor while Eoin Barry, who has run twice in the Graiguecullen-Portarlington area and is a former Seanad candidate, is also a strong possibility. So far Labour have not indicated who they will run, if anyone.
After that, local Independent councillors James Kelly, Ben Brennan, Ollie Clooney and Tommy Mulligan have all said that they won’t be running – though Mulligan, as a Portlaoise-based former Sinn Féin member, would appear to have an opportunity, particularly in the current climate.
Then there is Aisling Moran from Killeen, who hasn’t ruled out running. She was initially elected for Fine Gael in 2019 following the retirement of her father John (who ran alongside Charlie Flanagan in 2011) but later left the party and grew her vote in the Locals as an Independent.
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