A significant local political decision will be made this evening in the Killeshin Hotel in Portlaoise when the Fine Gael members in Laois vote to decide who to run as the party’s candidate in the next General Election.
The exact date of the General Election remains a guessing game with mid November one possibility. If not then, it’s likely to be in early 2025 though it could be pushed out as far as March.
The reason that Fine Gael have a decision to make is quite simple: after a lifetime in politics, Charlie Flanagan is retiring.
First elected in 1987, he has spent 32 years in the Dáil when you factor in the five years, from 2002 to 2007, when he was out in the political cold having lost his seat at the 2002 General Election.
Prior to him, his father Oliver J, ran in 14 General Elections, going all the way back to 1943. The numbers and staggering.
Between them they ran for the Dáil on 23 occasions, they were successful in 22 of them and represented Laois for more than 80 years. Whatever someone’s political views, there’s no denying that history.
With none of Charlie’s family interested in following in those footsteps, the link is broken and it opens the door for a new face to emerge.
As it stands there are three candidates nominated for this evening: Cllr Willie Aird from Portlaoise, Cllr Conor Bergin from Borris-in-Ossory and Paddy Buggy from Mountmellick.
And there’s a reason there’s significant interest too. The prize is big. Whoever emerges tonight will have one foot in the Dáil.
It’s hard to see a situation where there isn’t a seat for Fine Gael in Laois.
Though not yet confirmed, it’s expected that party headquarters will indicate that just one of those will be selected.
It’s understood that there are about 350 Fine Gael members in Laois. In order to be eligible to vote, they have to have been a member for at least two years.
Senator Garret Ahern from Tipperary is being sent to oversee proceedings.
Each candidate will be formally proposed and seconded on the night and they will then address the gathering also themselves.
The great unknown is that Fine Gael could yet add a second candidate, one that doesn’t contest convention.
If this were to happen, it is likely to be a female as the party stretches to meet the 40% gender quota nationally.
This could open the door for Cllr Vivienne Phelan from Stradbally, former Portlaoise-based councillor Thomasina Connell or perhaps a new candidate entirely, should FG have the pulling power to recruit a high-profile personality as they have done previously with the likes of Nina Carbery and Maria Walsh.
That is all speculation for another day, though. Tonight, the Fine Gael masses will arrive to Portlaoise. With a vote in the offing, turnout of eligible voters will be high.
Paddy Buggy is the outsider. Though he polled strongly in the Local Elections in June, he didn’t win a seat. That fact alone means he has ground to make up.
This looks like a shootout between Aird and Bergin and a choice for the members.
In the Local Elections, nobody in Laois got more first preferences than Conor Bergin.
He’s the youngest Councillor in Laois, was elected first in 2019 as a 25-year-old and grew his vote substantially this time around.
He is a trainee solicitor, a former parliamentary assistant for Charlie Flanagan and has served as Cathaoirleach of Laois County Council. He ticks so many boxes.
Willie Aird has been an elected representative since 1979, when he was first voted on to the then Portlaoise Town Commission.
In 1985 he won a seat on Laois County Council in his own right. He has topped the poll in the Portlaoise district in each of the last five Local Elections. On each occasion he was elected on the first count.
Aged in his mid 60s, he has farmed all his life in the centre of Portlaoise. Urban-based but strong with Fine Gael’s strong support base from the farming community.
Indeed there’s a strong IFA angle. Aird’s wife Anne Maria was one of the driving forces behind Francie Gorman’s successful IFA presidential bid last winter.
Jer Bergin, a former presidential candidate, is Conor Bergin’s cousin and has been by his side during his two Local Election campaigns.
Will members decide that Bergin is the face of the future for Fine Gael in Laois? His national career in politics could be a long one if he gets over the line tonight.
Or will they say that Aird has more than served his apprenticeship in the council and deserves his shot at the big one?
Both have been canvassing energetically in recent weeks.
It will be tense and it should be tight. It’s that cut-throat element that political animals live for.
May the best man win.
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