To look at how a vote might go in this year’s Local Elections, one of the best starting points is the last election.
And the Borris-in-Ossory/Mountmellick Municipal District in 2019 was a real blockbuster – with all six outgoing councillors contesting again and two very strong first-time candidates arriving to really shake things up.
Durrow’s Ollie Clooney got huge backing from his home town as well as from nearby Cullohill to get over 1,100 first preferences – while Fine Gael’s Conor Bergin, then only aged 25, got 925 votes. Bergin was six votes behind the long-serving Brendan Phelan but 100 ahead of his party colleague and the even longer-serving David Goodwin.
Here we look back at how the 10 counts unfolded.
1st Count
- James Kelly (Independent) – 1,517
- Paddy Bracken (Fianna Fáil) – 1,414
- John King (Fine Gael) – 1,254
- Ollie Clooney (Independent) – 1,129
- Seamus McDonald (Fianna Fáil) – 1,089
- Brendan Phelan (Independent) – 931
- Conor Bergin (Fine Gael) – 925
- David Goodwin (Fine Gael) – 825
- Lorna Holohan-Garry (Sinn Féin) – 649
- Liam O’Neill (Fianna Fáil) – 575
- Fergal Conroy (Fine Gael) – 559
- Declan Good (Fianna Fáil) – 542
- Brian Furlong (Independent) – 326
- Ger Hogan (Independent) – 192
2nd Count – Distribution of Ger Hogan (Independent) votes (192)
No candidate had reached the quota after the first count so the bottom candidate, Ger Hogan (Independent) from Camross, was eliminated and his 192 votes were distributed.
Exactly 50% of his transferable vote remained with Independent candidates with James Kelly picking up 59 of them, Brendan Phelan 22, Ollie Clooney 7 and Brian Furlong 5.
Conor Bergin, from Borris-in-Ossory, was the biggest beneficiary after James Kelly and got 24 transfers.
- James Kelly (Independent) – 1,576 (+59)
- Paddy Bracken (Fianna Fáil) – 1,418 (+4)
- John King (Fine Gael) – 1,258 (+4)
- Ollie Clooney (Independent) – 1,136 (+7)
- Seamus McDonald (Fianna Fáil) – 1,095 (+6)
- Brendan Phelan (Independent) – 953 (+22)
- Conor Bergin (Fine Gael) – 949 (+24)
- David Goodwin (Fine Gael) – 831 (+6)
- Lorna Holohan-Garry (Sinn Féin) – 668 (+19)
- Liam O’Neill (Fianna Fáil) – 587 (+12)
- Fergal Conroy (Fine Gael) – 561 (+2)
- Declan Good (Fianna Fáil) – 549 (+7)
- Brian Furlong (Independent) – 331 (+5)
- Ger Hogan (Independent) – 192 – ELIMINATED after the 1st count
3rd Count – Distribution of Brian Furlong (Independent) votes (331)
Again no candidate had reached the quota, so again the lowest candidate was eliminated. This time it was Brian Furlong (Independent) from Mountmellick.
This time, more than 50% of the transferrable votes stayed with Mountmellick-based candidates with Fianna Fáil’s Bracken picking up 82, Sinn Féin’s Lorna Holohan-Garry getting 73 and Fine Gael’s Fergal Conroy getting 33.
- James Kelly (Independent) – 1,608 (+32)
- Paddy Bracken (Fianna Fáil) – 1,500 (+82)
- John King (Fine Gael) – 1,259 (+1)
- Ollie Clooney (Independent) – 1,149 (+13)
- Seamus McDonald (Fianna Fáil) – 1,116 (+21)
- Brendan Phelan (Independent) – 964 (+11)
- Conor Bergin (Fine Gael) – 953 (+4)
- David Goodwin (Fine Gael) – 843 (+12)
- Lorna Holohan-Garry (Sinn Féin) – 741 (+73)
- Liam O’Neill (Fianna Fáil) – 594 (+7)
- Fergal Conroy (Fine Gael) – 594 (+33)
- Declan Good (Fianna Fáil) – 554 (+5)
- Brian Furlong (Independent) – 331 (+5) – ELIMINATED after the 2nd count
- Ger Hogan (Independent) – ELIMINATED after the 1st count
4th Count – Distribution of Declan Good (Fianna Fáil) votes (554)
Fianna Fáil’s Declan Good from Clonaslee was next to go. His 554 votes were the first transfer to see any change in the standings as a bulk of them went to his party colleague Seamus McDonald just down the road in Rosenallis.
With McDonald getting 216 transfers he jumped to third while another 73 also went to Rosenallis, to Fine Gael’s David Goodwin, as he closed the gap on his running mate Conor Bergin.
At the other end, three more votes to Liam O’Neill than to Fergal Conroy meant that Conroy was next to go.
- James Kelly (Independent) – 1,629 (+21)
- Paddy Bracken (Fianna Fáil) – 1,565 (+65)
- Seamus McDonald (Fianna Fáil) – 1,332 (+216)
- John King (Fine Gael) – 1,261 (+2)
- Ollie Clooney (Independent) – 1,161 (+12)
- Brendan Phelan (Independent) – 970 (+6)
- Conor Bergin (Fine Gael) – 962 (+9)
- David Goodwin (Fine Gael) – 916 (+73)
- Lorna Holohan-Garry (Sinn Féin) – 790 (+49)
- Liam O’Neill (Fianna Fáil) – 624 (+30)
- Fergal Conroy (Fine Gael) – 621 (+27)
- Declan Good (Fianna Fáil) – 554 (+5) – ELIMINATED after the 3rd count
- Brian Furlong (Independent) – ELIMINATED after the 2nd count
- Ger Hogan (Independent) – ELIMINATED after the 1st count
5th Count – Transfer of Fergal Conroy (Fine Gael) votes (621)
Again, a decent portion of the Mountmellick vote stuck together. 187 of Conroy’s transfers went to fellow Mountmellick man Paddy Bracken, bringing him above James Kelly and over the quota to win the first seat.
151 went to his closest (geographical) running mate David Goodwin to bring him into the top six for the first time. But Conor Bergin also did well with 80 transfers, allowing him to overtake Brendan Phelan.
Conversely, Sinn Féin’s Lorna Holohan-Garry, also from Mountmellick, did not do well out of Conroy’s elimination picking up only 29 votes.
- Paddy Bracken (Fianna Fáil) – 1,752 (+187)
- James Kelly (Independent) – 1,648 (+19)
- Seamus McDonald (Fianna Fáil) – 1,395 (+63)
- John King (Fine Gael) – 1,274 (+13)
- Ollie Clooney (Independent) – 1,171 (+10)
- David Goodwin (Fine Gael) – 1,067 (+151)
- Conor Bergin (Fine Gael) – 1,042 (+80)
- Brendan Phelan (Independent) – 976 (+6)
- Lorna Holohan-Garry (Sinn Féin) – 819 (+29)
- Liam O’Neill (Fianna Fáil) – 637 (+13)
- Fergal Conroy (Fine Gael) – 621 (+27) – ELIMINATED after the 4th count
- Declan Good (Fianna Fáil) – ELIMINATED after the 3rd count
- Brian Furlong (Independent) – ELIMINATED after the 2nd count
- Ger Hogan (Independent) – ELIMINATED after the 1st count
6th Count – Distribution of Liam O’Neill (Fianna Fáil) votes (637)
It’s at this stage of the count where it gets complicated even for the real political anoraks. Paddy Bracken was now past the quota but even if his surplus of 48 votes was distributed, it wouldn’t have been enough to keep Liam O’Neill from Trumera in the race.
So O’Neill was eliminated as the remaining bottom candidate. Again the transfers remain consistent: 163 go to James Kelly in nearby Mountrath; 140 go to his Fianna Fáil colleague Seamus McDonald. It’s enough for Kelly to exceed the surplus and be elected.
Brendan Phelan, formerly of Fianna Fáil, gets 80 transfers to stay in the mix but there’s another change in the standings as Conor Bergin nudges ahead of David Goodwin yet again.
- Paddy Bracken (Fianna Fáil) – 1,752 (+187) – ELECTED
- James Kelly (Independent) – 1,811 (+163) – ELECTED
- Seamus McDonald (Fianna Fáil) – 1,535 (+140)
- John King (Fine Gael) – 1,314 (+40)
- Ollie Clooney (Independent) – 1,219 (+48)
- Conor Bergin (Fine Gael) – 1,091 (+49)
- David Goodwin (Fine Gael) – 1,088 (+21)
- Brendan Phelan (Independent) – 1,056 (+80)
- Lorna Holohan-Garry (Sinn Féin) – 841 (+22)
- Liam O’Neill (Fianna Fáil) – 637 (+13) – ELIMINATED after the 5th count
- Fergal Conroy (Fine Gael) – ELIMINATED after the 4th count
- Declan Good (Fianna Fáil) – ELIMINATED after the 3rd count
- Brian Furlong (Independent) – ELIMINATED after the 2nd count
- Ger Hogan (Independent) – ELIMINATED after the 1st count
7th Count – Distribution of Lorna Holohan-Garry (Sinn Féin) votes (841)
Lorna Holohan-Garry is next to go as she’s over 250 votes behind Brendan Phelan and had no way to overtake him. Seamus McDonald is the biggest beneficiary, with 136 votes to edge him closer to the quota.
Brendan Phelan gets 110. And that boost helps the Independent Rathdowney candidate back into sixth position, one single vote ahead of Conor Bergin. David Goodwin slips that bit further back – though is still only 16 votes off the 6th placed Phelan.
- Paddy Bracken (Fianna Fáil) – 1,752 (+187) – ELECTED
- James Kelly (Independent) – 1,811 (+163) – ELECTED
- Seamus McDonald (Fianna Fáil) – 1,671 (+136)
- John King (Fine Gael) – 1,351 (+37)
- Ollie Clooney (Independent) – 1,304 (+85)
- Brendan Phelan (Independent) – 1,166 (+110)
- Conor Bergin (Fine Gael) – 1,165 (+74)
- David Goodwin (Fine Gael) – 1,150 (+62)
- Lorna Holohan-Garry (Sinn Féin) – 841 (+22) – ELIMINATED after the 6th count
- Liam O’Neill (Fianna Fáil) – ELIMINATED after the 5th count
- Fergal Conroy (Fine Gael) – ELIMINATED after the 4th count
- Declan Good (Fianna Fáil) – ELIMINATED after the 3rd count
- Brian Furlong (Independent) – ELIMINATED after the 2nd count
- Ger Hogan (Independent) – ELIMINATED after the 1st count
8th Count – Distribution of James Kelly (Independent) surplus (107)
Now it’s time to distribute James Kelly’s surplus of 107 votes. And they prove to be rather vital – 25 of them going to Conor Bergin; just two to David Goodwin.
In another example of Independents sticking together to a certain extent, 27 votes go to Ollie Clooney and 19 to Brendan Phelan.
But the change in order is again significant – Conor Bergin’s six extra transfers allows him go five ahead of Brendan Phelan. David Goodwin is all but out of contention.
- Paddy Bracken (Fianna Fáil) – 1,752 (+187) – ELECTED
- James Kelly (Independent) – 1,811 (+163) – ELECTED
- Seamus McDonald (Fianna Fáil) – 1,695 (+24)
- John King (Fine Gael) – 1,355 (+4)
- Ollie Clooney (Independent) – 1,331 (+27)
- Conor Bergin (Fine Gael) – 1,190 (+25)
- Brendan Phelan (Independent) – 1,185 (+19)
- David Goodwin (Fine Gael) – 1,152 (+2)
- Lorna Holohan-Garry (Sinn Féin) – ELIMINATED after the 6th count
- Liam O’Neill (Fianna Fáil) – ELIMINATED after the 5th count
- Fergal Conroy (Fine Gael) – ELIMINATED after the 4th count
- Declan Good (Fianna Fáil) – ELIMINATED after the 3rd count
- Brian Furlong (Independent) – ELIMINATED after the 2nd count
- Ger Hogan (Independent) – ELIMINATED after the 1st count
9th Count – Transfer of Paddy Bracken (Fianna Fáil) surplus (48)
Paddy Bracken’s surplus of 48 votes is now distributed. It’s not a massive amount but technically it could help David Goodwin remain in contention. Though Goodwin gets 17 votes – more than anyone else – it’s not enough.
15 votes go to Bracken’s Fianna Fáil colleague Seamus McDonald up the road in Rosenallis – to help him over the quota. McDonald is duly elected. Goodwin is duly eliminated – and his transfers will decide the final seat.
In a count of small margins, Conor Bergin again makes a gain, with nine transfers. Brendan Phelan only gets two. The gap between them is now 12.
- Paddy Bracken (Fianna Fáil) – 1,752 (+187) – ELECTED
- James Kelly (Independent) – 1,811 (+163) – ELECTED
- Seamus McDonald (Fianna Fáil) – 1,710 (+15) – ELECTED
- John King (Fine Gael) – 1,357 (+2)
- Ollie Clooney (Independent) – 1,334 (+3)
- Conor Bergin (Fine Gael) – 1,199 (+9)
- Brendan Phelan (Independent) – 1,187 (+2)
- David Goodwin (Fine Gael) – 1,169 (+17)
- Lorna Holohan-Garry (Sinn Féin) – ELIMINATED after the 6th count
- Liam O’Neill (Fianna Fáil) – ELIMINATED after the 5th count
- Fergal Conroy (Fine Gael) – ELIMINATED after the 4th count
- Declan Good (Fianna Fáil) – ELIMINATED after the 3rd count
- Brian Furlong (Independent) – ELIMINATED after the 2nd count
- Ger Hogan (Independent) – ELIMINATED after the 1st count
10th Count – Transfer of David Goodwin (Fine Gael) votes (1,169)
Four candidates left – two Fine Gael, two Independent – and three seats to fill. But the elimination of David Goodwin (Fine Gael) means that the likelihood is that the majority of the votes will remain with his party colleagues.
Conor Bergin duly gets 349 of them, John King gets 175. Indeed when you take out the 488 ‘non transferrable’ votes it means that over 80% stay with Fine Gael.
Brendan Phelan gets 86 but it’s nowhere near enough. His time as a councillor is up. Bergin, King and Clooney take the last three seats.
- Paddy Bracken (Fianna Fáil) – 1,752 (+187) – ELECTED
- James Kelly (Independent) – 1,811 (+163) – ELECTED
- Seamus McDonald (Fianna Fáil) – 1,710 (+15) – ELECTED
- John King (Fine Gael) – 1,532 (+175) – ELECTED
- Ollie Clooney (Independent) – 1,405 (+71) – ELECTED
- Conor Bergin (Fine Gael) – 1,548 (+349) – ELECTED
- Brendan Phelan (Independent) – 1,273 (+86) – ELIMINATED after the 10th count
- David Goodwin (Fine Gael) – ELIMINATED after the 9th count
- Lorna Holohan-Garry (Sinn Féin) – ELIMINATED after the 6th count
- Liam O’Neill (Fianna Fáil) – ELIMINATED after the 5th count
- Fergal Conroy (Fine Gael) – ELIMINATED after the 4th count
- Declan Good (Fianna Fáil) – ELIMINATED after the 3rd count
- Brian Furlong (Independent) – ELIMINATED after the 2nd count
- Ger Hogan (Independent) – ELIMINATED after the 1st count